JidbaaleEthiopia’s strategic ambition for a Red Sea footing is escalating regional tensions in the Horn of Africa, involving Ethiopia, Djibouti, Egypt, and Somalia. The Red Sea control is at the center of this power struggle, with Ethiopia’s port arrangement with Somaliland being a key factor. Signed in January, the treaty grants Ethiopia extensive access to Somaliland’s port infrastructure in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence. However, Somalia has criticized the pact as unlawful, sparking a diplomatic firestorm. The Somali Federal Government has attempted to deepen its connections with Egypt and Eritrea, presenting itself as a bulwark against Ethiopia’s aspirations.
In response, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia formed an anti-Ethiopian tripartite alliance in October 2024. The three states agreed to cooperate in military and diplomatic measures to resist Ethiopia’s influence and defend Somalia’s territorial integrity. Egypt has long considered Ethiopia a regional adversary, especially following the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Ethiopia’s plans to build a military presence in the Red Sea threaten Egypt’s strategic interests in the area.
Somalia’s reaction to Ethiopia’s expanding influence has been both political and military. In August 2024, Somalia signed a bilateral defense treaty with Egypt, increasing its military growth. Egyptian soldiers have now landed in Mogadishu, and additional hardware shipments have reinforced Somalia’s military capabilities.
