JidbaaleJubaland President Ahmed Madobe has allegedly rejected Somalia’s federal government’s desire to introduce a one-person, one-vote (1PV) system, citing worries about missing election dates and the possibility for term extensions. His objection, addressed at the present National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting in Mogadishu, threatens to disrupt the country’s election reforms and put doubt on whether the 1PV system can be implemented in time.
Madobe’s attitude goes opposite to commitments reached during the NCC’s May 27 conference, when all parties—including Madobe—signed onto an electoral framework to replace Somalia’s clan-based power-sharing system with a proportional representation one. The new system is designed to create more inclusive administration by forming three main political parties and creating a unified National Electoral Commission with 18 members, six of whom would be selected by the federal government. The federal government’s plan is for creating a single, centralized electoral commission that would essentially dissolve state-level electoral committees. The adjustment would dramatically decrease the authority of regional leaders.
A source close to the negotiations disclosed that Madobe’s objection derives from his wish to keep control over Jubaland’s regional election committee.
Madobe’s principal fear is that the local government elections slated for June 30 and the November 30 state elections, which were initially designated as a test for the larger electoral changes, are now unlikely to take place on time. He thinks that pressing ahead with the 1PV model under existing circumstances will definitely lead to term extensions for state and federal government leaders.
The federal administration, headed by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has been advocating the 1PV system as a key step in improving Somalia’s democratic institutions. The change away from the 4.5 clan-based system to proportional representation is viewed as crucial to developing national unity and more inclusive administration. However, Madobe’s resistance, paired with Puntland’s boycott, raises concerns about whether Somalia’s first-ever 1PV elections will proceed as planned.
Madobe’s resistance reflects rising worries over whether Somalia can achieve the scheduled election timeframe. Under the framework agreed upon in May, Somalia is slated to conduct municipal elections by June 2024 and national elections by November 2024. However, with delays in important procedures like state elections and the creation of the National Electoral Commission, the chance of staging timely elections becomes increasingly remote.
The NCC conference, which is focused on important governance concerns, has already been strained by Puntland’s decision to skip the negotiations. The conclusion of the discussions will play a critical role in deciding whether Somalia can move forward with its election reforms and strengthen its democratic transition.
