Jidbaale
The increasing military collaboration between Somalia and Egypt is escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa as both countries unite to counteract Ethiopia’s dominance. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has vowed to preserve his country’s territorial integrity amid concerns of an escalation in regional warfare. Egyptian military involvement in Somalia has significantly increased over the previous month, with 1,000 soldiers deployed in Mogadishu from August 27 to 29. Egyptian officials have indicated intentions to facilitate additional arms supplies, including anti-tank missiles, rocket launchers, and drones, heightening concerns regarding a possible escalation.
Somalia’s federal government is using this coalition to urge Ethiopia to withdraw its port contract with Somaliland, which allows Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s ports, giving it a potential lifeline to the Red Sea. Mogadishu has harshly opposed the pact, calling it a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and threatening to evacuate Ethiopian military stationed in Somalia unless the arrangement is reversed. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed remains adamant on Ethiopia’s right to secure access to the Red Sea, describing it as an “existential issue.” Local factions within Somalia’s Jubbaland and South West states have expressed support for Ethiopia’s presence, increasing the potential for internal strife and a possible proxy war.
The tensions between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt are not new, as they have long been at odds over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile. Egypt relies on the Nile for 90% of its water supply and sees the dam as critical for its energy independence and national growth. With Egypt’s influence in Sudan decreasing due to the ongoing civil war, Cairo has turned to Somalia as a vital partner, aiming to give Egypt a larger footing in the region and apply more pressure on Ethiopia, particularly over the GERD.
