Jidbaale
Egypt and Somalia have agreed to conduct military exercises in the Horn of Africa region, demonstrating their strength and potential to escalate tensions between the two Arab League countries and Ethiopia. The drills will include ground, air, and naval forces, with no details on the commencement date, length, or quantity of troops engaged. The news came just one day after Egypt formally communicated to the UN Security Council, expressing its objection to Ethiopia’s independent actions regarding the Grand Renaissance Ethiopia Dam (GERD).
For over ten years, Egypt and Ethiopia have been in a long-running dispute over the construction of the huge Nile project. Cairo argues that the dam will diminish its crucial allocation of Nile resources. Egypt has negotiated in good faith with Ethiopia for 13 years, but negotiations were halted after it became evident that Addis Ababa wanted them to continue indefinitely as a cover while it produced a de facto scenario on the ground.
News of the military training came less than a week after Egypt began sending troops, arms, and military hardware to Somalia under the parameters of a military cooperation deal struck last month. Egypt was extremely incensed by the action that it said would destabilize the Horn of Africa area and take it into “uncharted waters.”
Since becoming landlocked, Egypt and Somalia have developed closer relations. This year, Ethiopia reached a preliminary agreement with the breakaway territory of Somaliland to lease coastal property in exchange for possible recognition of its independence from Somalia. Somalia branded the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal as an assault on its sovereignty and vowed to fight it by whatever means necessary.
Egypt has stated it aims to appeal to the African Union to be part of a new peacekeeping force in Somalia, but it is not clear whether the Egyptian troops already on the ground in Somalia will serve as the basis of its peacekeeping mission. Media sources in Egypt have spoken of intentions to send as many as 10,000 troops to Somalia.
A possible outbreak of hostilities between Egypt and Ethiopia would further destabilize the Horn of Africa and the larger East Africa region, already shaken by a 16-month civil war in Sudan that has created a severed displacement crisis. Attacks against Red Sea shipping by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, have contributed to the region’s instability, with world powers competing for a foothold in the key stretch of water.
Egypt, a primarily desert country with a population of 106 million, depends on the Nile for practically all its freshwater needs. In accordance with the UN Charter, the Egyptian government is ready to exercise its right to defend and protect the rights and interests of the Egyptian people.
